or the 3 Door Problem as proposed by the article by Michael Shermer. This is from the Lets Make a Deal show where the contestant picks one of three doors. The first is opened leaving two for the contestant to have a second chance at choosing. The logical conclusion is you have a 50-50 chance of winning.Although counter intuitive, the scientific probability of switching doors puts the odds in your favor 2 to 1. In other words, you have a 66% chance of winning the car if you switch doors at the last minute.
But wait, your brain says you have a 50-50 chance. Two doors, equal probability. This is why it is counter intuitive.
So how do you solve this problem? More importantly, how do you solve the problem of people believing what they believe?
For starters, don’t try to change the audience. Working from the premise that you can never motivate anyone to do anything you will have a better chance of getting them to do something.
The next premise is that you can create the circumstance or situation where they will be motivated in. That circumstance or situation can be created with the use of the scientific method. Empowered with being convinced that they do not know what they do not know, they are in a better position to now not believe because of emotion.
They may just want to know the truth for themselves, what ever that truth may be.
At the least you will create lively debate where people will want to share what they believe, even though most likely 66% of them will be wrong.
Have fun with this.
